As had been noted on countless previous occasions, football is indeed a “funny old game”. Two seasons ago Real Madrid visited the Estadio Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan and defeated Sevilla 6-2 thanks to four goals from Cristiano Ronaldo.
Last season, Los Blancos returned to the same stadium, and while the weather was notably cooler with it being December not May, the result was exactly the same with Jose Mourinho’s men winning once more 6-2.
A repeat of that scoreline is offered at 200/1 (201.00) by , and while stranger things have happened, a slightly more sedate affair looks on the cards on Saturday evening.
Madrid’s start to the league season has been poor, not only their results which have seen them play out a draw, a defeat and a victory in their opening three games of the season, but their lack of intensity while in possession.
The exception of course being during their Supercopa triumph over Barcelona, although after an international break and with a huge Champions League tie against Manchester City on the horizon, expect Mourinho to make a few changes to his starting 11.
A win for the champions is offered at 61/100 (1.61) while Sevilla who remain unbeaten this season are available at 4/1 (5.00).
Instead of venturing into the outright market the smart money will be on goal scorers and one player from each team stands out beyond all others. Gonzalo Higuain has made his best scoring start to a season for Madrid, notching six goals in seven matches for club and country.
He is offered at 91/100 (1.91) to score at any time which looks like great value if he plays. But having featured in both of Argentina’s recent World Cup qualifiers, Jose Mourinho may opt to rest him.
Instead invest in Alvaro Negredo finding the net for Sevilla offered at 2/1 (3.00). The former Madrid man is in fine form with two goals already this season, and three in his last three games against his old club.
Madrid meanwhile have conceded in seven of their last eight away games in the league, and Negredo is more than capable of causing them problems.
The price of 7/1 (8.00) on him opening the scoring also looks generous for an in-form striker playing at home and is perfect for a small value bet.
New customers who use their £25 sign up bonus on Phil’s value bet could win £175
Phil Kitromilides is a sports broadcaster working on radio and TV in London and Madrid. You can also follow Phil on Twitter.