Our man at the Bernabeu, Phil Kitromilides, believes backing a goal before 22 minutes is an excellent option for Tuesday’s Champions League semi-final second leg
Ever since last week’s 4-1 win for Borussia Dortmund in the first leg of their Champions League semi final, the Madrid based sports papers have been alive with the talk of a comeback.
Indeed, one of the dailies went with the headline “Operation 3-0” after the calamity at Signal Iduna Park, highlighting the minimum scoreline which Madrid require to ensure progression.
The bookmakers make them red hot favorites to win this evening with Bet365 pricing them at 4/6 (1.65).
The problem being of course that given the scale of their collapse in Germany six day ago, Madrid not only need to win but win convincingly, and even that might not be enough; as one Madridista put it “how sad that even a 5-2 win sees us out”.
Yet there is genuine hope here in the Spanish capital given Madrid’s past comebacks in Europe against the likes of Inter, Anderlecht, and somewhat surprisingly, Derby County.
Dortmund, for their part, are offered at 4/1 (5.00) but Madrid have not lost a European game at home for two years and though Dortmund looked stunning in their own back yard, the Bernabeu might be a different prospect.
Goals look extremely likely, and as such the prices for both teams to score, 4/9 (1.44) and over 2.5 goals, 4/11 (1.36) are far too short to consider.
Instead back a goal to be scored inside the first 22 minutes which is offered at the infinitely more appealing price of 5/6 (1.83).
Madrid will be desperate for an early strike to get themselves and the crowd believing in the possibility of a comeback and to also prey on Dortmund’s relative recent inexperience at this level.
However, Dortmund have shown just how adept they are at counterattacking and should Madrid come out all guns blazing they could leave themselves exposed to a sucker punch.
This bet has paid out in each of Madrid’s last three home games in the Champions League and should have a great chance of doing so again.
Furthermore Bet365’s excellent £50 free in play bet offer, makes this option even more tempting; should there be no goal in the first 22 minutes you can use your free bet to make up for it in the rest of the match.
For a value bet try backing Madrid to win both halves at 11/4 (3.75) something they surely must do if they are to have any hope of pulling off what would be the greatest European comeback in their long history.
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